Donald J. Trump leads President Biden in five crucial battleground states, a new set of polls shows, as a yearning for change and discontent over the economy and the war in Gaza among young, Black and Hispanic voters threaten to unravel the president’s Democratic coalition.
The race was closer among likely voters. Mr. Trump led in five states as well, but Mr. Biden edged ahead in Michigan while trailing only narrowly in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. While Mr. Biden won all six of those states in 2020, victories in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin would be enough for him to win re-election, provided he won everywhere else he did four years ago.
The findings reveal widespread dissatisfaction with the state of the country and serious doubts about Mr. Biden’s ability to deliver major improvements to American life.
The sense that Mr. Biden would do little to improve the nation’s fortunes has helped erode his standing among young, Black and Hispanic voters, who usually represent the foundation of any Democratic path to the presidency. The Times/Siena polls found that the three groups wanted fundamental changes to American society, not just a return to normalcy, and few believed that Mr. Biden would make even minor changes that would be good for the country.
Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden are essentially tied among 18-to-29-year-olds and Hispanic voters, even though each group gave Mr. Biden more than 60 percent of their vote in 2020. Mr. Trump also wins more than 20 percent of Black voters — a tally that would be the highest level of Black support for any Republican presidential candidate since the enactment of the Civil Rights Act of 1964.
I still have yet to see any analysis of why non-white voters are far more likely to back a ceasefire and a ban on arms exports to Israel than white voters. The age gap is well known and discussed but the racial one is not. Obviously racism is at play but in what capacity?
@P4rtySquirrelRepublican1mo1MO
Polls conducted in the third and fourth week of the Trump trial, amid wall-to-wall media coverage of Trump's legal situation.
@MadOcelotPatriot1mo1MO
The only demo Biden’s winning is the angry single white female.
@DiplomatLynxDemocrat1mo1MO
Sorry. Don’t believe any of these polls
@PantherMadisonNo Labels1mo1MO
Yep. The polling companies are trying to avoid their mistakes from 2016 when they missed Trump’s win so they are oversampling conservatives.
@CreativeCaviarNo Labels1mo1MO
Intersectionality, marginalized peoples empathize with other groups suffering under the same systems that they do and they've been seeing a nonstop live feed of what Israel has been doing in Gaza. They're prepared to walk away from Omelas to show their commitment to this.
NYT battleground polls are pretty much a disaster for Biden, but one faint silver lining for him is that his vote share generally improves once a 'likely voter' screen is applied--so he's a bit stronger among likelies than registereds. But he's still trailing in 5 of 6 states:
he has ultimate failed to appeal to his liberal voter base and has got close to nothing meaningful done in office.
@SeagullSarahDemocrat1mo1MO
Trump can’t possibly be worse than Biden on foreign policy and he would be a hell of a lot better at controlling immigration
The immigration issue and inflation have been allowed to fester so long that voters aren’t going back to Biden
@SuperiorMusselSocialist1mo1MO
The fact that his polls lurch downward starting in October can't be a coincidence, but the effect is probably indirect. Just like most people didn't support STAYING in Afghahistan, but the calamitous way in which the withdrawal unfolded shattered the image of "steady hand Joe."
@ISIDEWITH1mo1MO
@ISIDEWITH1mo1MO
@ISIDEWITH1mo1MO
@ISIDEWITH1mo1MO
@ISIDEWITH1mo1MO
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